Geo-politics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply. |
Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices. |
Geopolitics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply. |
Here's the concern. We're heading into the last quarter of the year, the winter peak demand season. Energy costs for consumers and industries certainly will be high. |
I expect the market to be down today but continued concerns of winter season supply will put a high floor in prices. |
If it's cold, you need to turn on the heating. It's not like gasoline, which you can conserve. |
If you have a portion of your power requirement generated by nuclear, there is less of a need for other types of fuel. |
In the next few days, depending on how the geopolitical problems play out, it is possible the market would correct as players take profits, ... But for now, we certainly are in uncharted territory. |
In the past few weeks, right before the announcement of the inventory report the market generally comes down. |
In the short-term, it is all about geopolitical drama. |
In the short-term, it is all about geopolitical drama. The short-term issue is Nigeria and the long-term issue is Iran. |
Iran individually can't raise prices ... whether Iran will respond to sanctions with an oil embargo may lead to a spike in prices. But I don't think it will occur because it will affect oil revenue to Iran. |
It forces the oil refineries to subsidize fuel so consumers in China don't feel much of the pain of high energy prices. |
It is a correction. Oil is rebounding because the market felt it was oversold. |
It is part of China's efforts to avoid becoming too reliant on any one energy type and to diversify sources of supply, |