Gasoline was already so hammered. You reach a point where you have already accounted for any inventory change and that's where we are. |
I do think that the continued deterioration of the situation in Iran is having some impact on the market. |
I don't expect a conflict with Iran to be long or involved. And so, any inventory accumulation that boosts prices in the short-run could lay the groundwork for weaker prices down the road. I doubt the increase in stock levels is permanent. |
I doubt anything will come of this. But this trend's persistence shows, one, the historical dislike of the oil industry continues, and two, the American public, and most of our legislators, seem to misunderstand how markets work. |
I suspect within about 10 days we'll see the situation will be significantly better than it is today. |
I think that what we may be seeing is the realization that if crude is not the problem, then we can't justify prices at $60 a barrel. |
I'm a little bit surprised that we're down because of the IAEA. This is the UN so it will take a while before we get a solution. |
If it is an armed insurgency going after Saudi oil facilities, that's going to move the price higher without a doubt. |
If the Nigeria news was happening alone it would do nothing to the market, but together with the risk of Iranian sanctions it takes on a greater importance. |
If we don't get hit with another tropical storm in the Gulf, I think we have a good shot at seeing prices come off their highs. |
If we get an oil embargo, you could conceivably see prices get above $60 per barrel. I don't know where the high would be. It would be panic. |
If we get through the next 24 hours without another attack and Hurricane Dennis weakens, then we should see this market recover. |
If you want to protect yourself from it, get a high-mileage car. Volatility is always an issue. It's just a part of the environment. |
If you're going to see that $3 to $3.50, you're going to see it between May 1 and June 15. After that, you probably won't. That's the usual pattern. |
In effect, the market is saying this is going to be with us for a while. |