The big supply declines and colder weather will send us higher. We've probably seen the bottom and will rise from here. |
The data today will look really bullish and that has to be taken into account. Clearly, we lost imports, production and refinery activity. Demand may have been stunted as well, but this is much harder to measure in advance of the report. |
The data was generally friendly (for prices) as crude oil unexpectedly declined. |
The data were bearish for crude but were quite supportive for products, especially for the distillate part of the market. |
The drop in crude was a surprise and was a little supportive to prices, but the market was completely overwhelmed by the build in products. It's unusual at this time of year to see distillate fuels rise. |
The fundamentals for crude oil aren't that good. I might be able to justify prices in the $57-to-$58 range, but not between $60 and $61 a barrel. |
The government has got to come up with a way in funding itself. |
The inventories were pretty supportive (for prices), especially for distillates and gasoline. |
The inventory data clearly helped, but I think there was another factor: It's getting cold. |
The Iran situation is tense but it doesn't look like there will be any immediate action taken. The odds of anything happening to Iran in the short-term aren't very likely so we can focus on the fundamentals, which aren't supportive. Inventories are extraordinarily high. |
The mark will effectively become the euro, |
The market is facing some seasonal pressure, but given the violence of the decline and the impending long weekend, I would not be shocked by a short-covering rally into the close. |
The most bearish element was the unexpected rise in crude inventories, |
The panic surrounding gasoline is pushing crude higher. The specification issues are starting to permeate the market. The distribution of ethanol is going to be a big problem. |
The places you're getting ethanol from are now selling ethanol to places that weren't using before. |