About two-thirds of the country's earnings are obtained from government investment and exports, which won't reach the common people. |
China competitiveness is generating a positive sum game in the region for now. |
China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market. |
China is a developing country that saves too much, and the United States is a developed country that spends too much. The result is a big trade gap. Does something have to give? Yes. But it's not clear when that will happen, and in the meantime both economies are performing pretty well. |
China's education system is a no man's land. Schools have too much autonomy, they receive government funding, but they are not monitored. |
China's investment demand is based on excessive optimism about the future. India depends on capital inflow to fund its consumption-led growth, like a poorer version of the U.S. |
China's investment demand is based on excessive optimism about the future. India depends on capital inflow to fund its consumption-led growth, like a poorer version of the US. |
Chinese tourism was the factor that kept Hong Kong from recession, |
Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth. |
Government officials are still learning to trust the market mechanism. They are containing inflation, but you're building up more and more distortions in the economy. |
Growth rates could decelerate by another 1 percentage point due to further rises in oil prices. |
I believe that the current dollar adjustment is cyclical. |
I experienced the effect firsthand on my return flight from London to Hong Kong last weekend, ... There were three passengers in my cabin -- a 10 percent occupancy rate at best. Hong Kong's restaurants are mostly empty. It is difficult to enjoy a meal with masked waiters tiptoeing around in silence. If you want to frighten people in Hong Kong, just sneeze. |
I experienced the effect firsthand on my return flight from London to Hong Kong last weekend. There were three passengers in my cabin -- a 10 percent occupancy rate at best. Hong Kong's restaurants are mostly empty. It is difficult to enjoy a meal with masked waiters tiptoeing around in silence. If you want to frighten people in Hong Kong, just sneeze. |
I think that the soft or hard landing debate is misleading. Financial markets usually have hard landings regardless of how an economy lands. |