I think that the soft or hard landing debate is misleading. Financial markets usually have hard landings regardless of how an economy lands. |
If growth in the U.S. slows significantly, all of Asia's exporters will feel it. |
If only the world remains wedded to free trade, there seems to be nothing to prevent China's export juggernaut from continuing to rumble on. |
If the CNY revaluation story loses steam, Hong Kong's interest rate could rise by over 100 bps soon. |
In particular, if another Bush government moves on to Iran, then oil prices would go very high and really threaten China's economic development. |
In the 1990s, the state banks shoveled those deposits to inefficient state companies. The end result was a large number of nonperforming loans. |
In the end, this sort of protectionism doesn't help you. You never stop this sort of thing. |
India and Korea, in particular, should raise interest rates to contain financial speculation. |
It's slowed less quickly than expected because local governments have been able to push through a lot of projects. |
It's the same old story. There is not much of a difference from last year. |
Korea's consumption growth is currently very much dependent on sentiment and unanticipated wealth gains, leading to concerns about the sustainability of consumption recovery. |
Over the next two decades, one of the two deltas will become the pre-eminent leader in China's economy, ... The YRD has the advantage in geography. |
Overseas Chinese control, by my estimate, $2 trillion of liquid assets that can be mobilized instantly to punt on anything from European football games to Shanghai property. This source of money is both the boon and the bane of China's economic development. |
probably the most appropriate currency policy for China. |
Taiwan-China relations will be peaceful for a long time to come, |