58 ordspråk av Barclays Capital

Barclays Capital

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Italy's problems appear so deeply rooted that the next government, whatever its complexion, is unlikely to do little more than make a start at solving them.

Keeping crude oil below $70 is all very well, but in political terms it is a useless achievement if you cannot also keep gasoline below $100. There is an energy crisis, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Market conditions will remain nervous and there is a general sense of uncertainty over the next big price move.

Much of gold's recent rally has been supported by positive investor sentiment in light of rising oil prices, inflation concerns and geopolitical volatility, and we do not expect these supportive macro-factors to dissipate in the near term.

OPEC production is falling in any case thanks to Nigerian losses, and the threat from Niger Delta militants to oil exports has the potential to get even more serious.

Physical buying could help provide some support, but it is still unclear at which price levels they would re-emerge in significant quantities.

Prices should continue to consolidate in the wide range of $535-$555 in the near term, though the underlying sentiment remains bullish and downside appears limited at present.

Range-bound trade looks likely to continue for some time, though we see potential for prices to break on the upside after this consolidation phase.

Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.

Some (traders) are suffering risk-fatigue and are not inclined to respond to anything much beyond the grind of the weekly U.S. numbers and have little interest in the geopolitical context or the global context of the data.

Sooner or later the seriousness of the situation for U.S. product supply will begin to show in the weekly U.S. data releases, though it may still be too early for that today.

Speculative activity will continue to dominate price movements, with fund interest based on justifications such as economic slowdown, inflationary concerns and hopes of Asian central bank buying and soaring physical demand.

The continued strong performance of commodity investments, allied to the desire of many institutional investors to diversify their equity and fixed income exposures, suggests that commodity investments are likely to continue growing strongly in 2006.

The current high levels of U.S. inventory is of little comfort given that it is the product of an unusually high level of seasonal maintenance. Although crude stocks are rising, product stocks are falling and U.S. oil demand is growing strongly.

The dichotomy in the US market between tight products and flush crude has become more pronounced.

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