58 ordspråk av Barclays Capital

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U.S. payrolls are much more pivotal today than in prior months. A strong outcome would encourage the market in its increasingly optimistic view of the US economy and hawkish view of the Fed.

Uncertainty over the eventual resolution of this conflict would help discourage aggressive selling interest.

Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.

Unless upcoming speeches indicate that other FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members are beginning to shift their views, we do not believe Olson's dissent represents the start of a broader movement within the FOMC toward slowing the pace of rate hikes.

We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.

We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.

We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60, and we expect Nigeria will continue to be a major issue in terms of supply security up to, and probably beyond, next year's elections.

We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60.

What is clear is that despite OPEC's extremely high current output levels there is little sign of a large surplus forming in the market just yet.

While strikes in Chile rarely tend to last for very long, any disruption to production or shipments will lend support to copper prices given the strong demand environment and lack of spare material.

While we think such high prices are not justifiable by gold 's commodity fundamentals in terms of market balance and inventory levels, the combination of a surge in oil prices above $70/barrel, geopolitical tensions and strong momentum is dominating at present, and further gains cannot be ruled out.

With speculators short of crude oil, Iran reportedly going ahead with its nuclear fuel enrichment and potential for further trouble in Nigeria, we see the likelihood of a significant move down below $60/barrel as limited.

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