a forecast about the future evolution of policy, not an unconditional commitment. |
A further jump in energy prices or a more pronounced reaction to those increases in prices that have already occurred could test the strength of the expansion, |
A very important factor is the fact that inflation expectations are well-controlled and well-contained, which means that the Federal Reserve, unlike the 70s, doesn't have to react violently in terms of raising interest rates to contain the second- and third-round inflationary impacts. So I remain pretty optimistic about the economy, |
According to government ethics rules ... it is permissible for a retired (Fed) governor to speak in public about the economy so long as he or she does not divulge confidential information. I have no indication that he has violated that rule. |
According to government ethics rules and FOMC rules, it is permissible for a retired governor to speak in public about the economy, so long as he or she does not divulge confidential information. I have no indication that he has violated that rule. |
Achieving price stability is not only important in itself, it is also central to attaining the Federal Reserve's other mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment and moderate long-term interest rates. |
After several false starts, the economy is showing signs of sustained recovery, |
Although I expect policy to follow the usual gradualist pattern, the pace of tightening will of necessity respond to evolving economic conditions, particularly the strength of the ongoing recovery in the labor market and developments on the inflation front, |
Although the U.S. economy has managed modest real growth through 2002 and into 2003, most economists agree that a strong and well-balanced recovery will require a greater contribution from the business sector, in the form of increased capital investment and hiring, |
announcing an actual number or range [for inflation] would serve to anchor public expectations of inflation more firmly and avoid the risk of 'inflation scares' that might unnecessarily raise nominal bond yields. |
As long as there's not permanent damage to our energy infrastructure, the effects on the overall economy should be fairly modest. |
As long as we find that the energy impact is only temporary ... my guess is that the effects on the overall economy will be fairly modest. |
As we look ahead, core inflation appears likely to remain in the zone of price stability during the remainder of 2004 and into 2005, |
at or near its potential next year. |
At some point in the future, the committee may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook. |