'Damn inflation, full speed ahead,' Greenspan has said in both action and word. I think an investor should believe him and invest accordingly, |
'Damn inflation, full speed ahead,' Greenspan has said in both action and word. I think an investor should believe him and invest accordingly. |
[Beyond that, some Treasury market participants worry that with recovery, inflation will pick up. In a note this week replete with (groan)] Star Wars ... current long bond yields do not reflect this risk. |
[Dr. Fred Pescatore says it's time to eat like a caveman: you know, more veggies and grains, less meat and real fruit rather than juice, because] overall fruit juice is only slightly healthier for you than soda and often has more calories. ... Get out on the track and put your foot to the floor and your heart into your mouth. |
[Emerging-market bond funds did well this quarter, up 3.6% on average, for the same reason as emerging-market stocks. As commodity prices rose, money from the developed world flooded such commodity-rich countries as Russia and Brazil, strengthening their fiscal balance sheets and the credit quality of their bonds. Consequently, investors became less fearful of owning them.] Many so-called emerging markets have long since emerged, ... Russia now has an investment-grade credit rating and with oil where it is right now, probably more money in the bank than the U.S. |
[Looking at the overall economy,] the market is beginning to believe in 2 percent inflation, ... We have the long bond close to ? 6.4 percent. |
4 percent or less, simply to provide a bottom from which we can move forward. |
A bullish orientation towards the front-end of the curve therefore should begin to dominate bond strategies, combined with an avoidance of anything that carries those low-risk premiums that Greenspan finally diagnosed, ... Those assets include real estate, equities, high yield, corporate, and some areas of emerging-market debt. |
a very unstable environment which can turn any minute. |
As long as the stock market does what it does, and keeps going up, the wealth effect is going to transmit into a fairly strong U.S. economy and preclude the Fed from easing rates, |
At some point down the road, in a dynamic economy such as the U.S., we should be returning to a more normal shape. That means ultimately short rates and the front end of the curve will trade at lower yields than long rates. |
By the time 10-year and 2-year Treasuries reach parity, as is almost the case now, the economy is typically slowing and the Fed is at or near the end of its tightening cycle, ... We are due for what appears to be a 2 percent or less Gross Domestic Product growth rate in 2006, a rate sure to stop the Fed and to induce eventual ease at some point later in the year. |
Central banks don't rest at one rate for long. If only to impart a bid to the U.S. housing market, they (the Federal Reserve) may have to start cutting again as early as the end of the year. |
Companies have been diluting your equity via stock options claiming that management needs incentives of millions of dollars just to get up in the morning and come in to work, ... Then they pick you off by trading on insider information, selling shares before the bad news hits and you have a chance to get out. |
Debt and lack of pricing power is a dangerous combination, ... Gasoline and a match fall into the same category. |