I'm sure it's going to take us a year or two, but it's in the works. |
If Fed Funds were expected to rise in the future, the curve would be positive with intermediate and long bonds requiring higher yields as a cushion against accelerating short rates. If the Fed were expected to lower rates, a flatter, even inverted curve might result. It's not that this academic theory has been dislodged in recent years but it may have been asked to take a seat next to the increasingly important variable of global financial flows. These flows, no doubt, rely critically on the willingness of foreign investors to hold U.S. assets in the face of potential currency and asset price depreciation. |
If he continues to believe that a flat curve is indicative of economic weakness, the hand-off may be one in which we stop at 4.5 percent. |
If housing cracks and falls hard, we've got a recession. |
If the economy slows down, if housing moves back down, then at some point late in 2006 the Fed starts to lower rates. That's why a 10-year note yield at 4.55 percent is a decent value as opposed to overvalued. |
if those [people] are holders of government bonds based upon a benign outlook for inflation, they had better cash some of them in, especially at today's 4.0% yield for 10-year Treasuries. |
If we had to forecast (and we do), we believe a range of 3 to 4½ percent for 10-year nominal Treasuries will prevail during most of our secular timeframe, |
If we had to forecast (and we do), we believe a range of 3 to 4½ percent for 10-year nominal Treasuries will prevail during most of our secular timeframe. |
If you do believe 4% is the top, |
In this kind of an environment, that's a slam dunk. |
Inflation and deflation in this levered world coexist nearly side-by-side, |
Investment markets in the United States will not ultimately prosper under such an increasingly odorous environment. |
Is it any wonder that in the space of the last six months we have had headline speeches promoting the dangers of deflation only to be followed by fears of accelerating inflation? |
It is all about the price. It is the only thing that matters. |
It is in the best interest of the company, its employees and investors, that we not proceed with the offering during this volatile time, |