46 ordspråk av David Resler

David Resler

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The job picture is as bad as it's been in the past 18 months. I don't think we can find enough special qualifying factors to give us an increase in payrolls.

The last month of the quarter tells you a great deal about how much momentum there was in spending, and it doesn't look to me like there was that much.

The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.

There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.

There is the pessimistic notion that this is not going to go away and that's going to have a more lasting impact on driving habits and behavior, I suspect, than we've seen so far.

This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.

This is the kind of thing that happens with economic data. In any given month, you have random variations in price trends Those random changes tend to offset each other.

Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.

Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.

Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.

We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.

We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.

We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.

We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.

We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.

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