29 ordspråk av Derek Halpenny

Derek Halpenny

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A banking crisis is a more realistic view than at any time in the last few years.

A consensus reading is not going to continue to support the dollar.

Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. There is no trade more obvious than selling the yen against the dollar.

Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets.

Following previous moves by the Federal Reserve, the market pretty much immediately looked ahead and had a confident view on the interest-rate outlook for the next two meetings. That's been a supportive factor for the dollar. Now it seems to be different.

Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing.

Given that the employment report will be released on Friday, the appetite for selling the dollar may be limited especially with the consensus for non-farm payrolls gradually creeping higher from the original reading of 200,000.

Given the rhetoric we've seen from the government today, the pressure, beyond moving away from quantitative easing will be very, very much on the BOJ to maintain a zero interest rate structure.

His number one objective will be to stress continuity. Continuity means more interest rate increases, so that means the dollar can keep going up.

I think it's inevitable that Governor Fukui will indicate we're that bit closer to the end of quantitative easing but I still think the message will be one of relative caution.

I think the fact that every time we've gone below 114 yen (on dollar/yen) we've bounced back higher, is beginning to become a bit of a concern for those playing the short-term market by trying to push dollar-yen lower.

One subject he may tackle is that maybe short-term rates need to be that bit higher.

Overall sentiment hasn't changed significantly, obviously we've had a reversal and the selling has ceased temporarily... But the strength of the dollar has been relatively modest.

Rising oil and gasoline prices are negative for the dollar.

The broader picture for the yen's decline is down to the continued deterioration in Japan's trade surplus.

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