The broader picture for the yen's decline is down to the continued deterioration in Japan's trade surplus. |
The consensus is that we are definitely going to war and it's probably two to three weeks away, no more than that. We can take it as a given that the Bank of Japan is in the market at or around 117, so that the low we have tested in the past at 116.80 remains intact. |
The data are becoming ever more important. There's no justification in the data to date to warrant the market to push aggressively for 5.25 percent. |
The dollar has depreciated sharply against the euro and more modestly against the yen with dollar sentiment deteriorating as fears increase over the outlook for the US economy. |
The dollar remains in recovery mode after last week's sharp sell-off. |
The dollar remains underpinned against both the euro and the yen ahead of the key employment report from the US. |
The market has already come to the conclusion that the medium-term impact of Katrina will be negligible if not net positive, therefore weak figures in the near term won't have any bearing. The market is now looking for a Fed move next week. |
The market is now beginning to look beyond the potential first step in terms of a shift from quantitative easing to interest rate targeting. |
The yen is being supported by a liquidation of short positions. |
There has been a shift this week towards expectations of another U.S. interest rate rise in March -- the interest rate differential is there and it is helping the dollar. |
There is no more obvious way to play interest rate differentials than buying dollar/yen. |
Towards the end of the year, we do see the dollar turning down as it loses its rate support. |
We could argue possibly that we've seen a little bit of stability since we've had the interest rate cut out of the way. Certainly the market is not as convinced over the need for further substantial monetary tightening in the UK. |
Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets. |