The recent upswing in mortgage rates does not seem to have slowed the new home construction market, if July's housing starts figures are any indication, |
The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent. |
The release of the August jobs report showed a continuation of the jobless recovery...this, of course, caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to ease back from the highest level we had seen in a year. |
The rise in mortgage rates stalled this week primarily because of rising tensions in other parts of the world, causing foreign investors to flee to the security of U.S. Treasuries. Consequently, yields remained mainly unchanged from last week, and so did long-term mortgage rates. |
The slight increase in mortgage rates this week was due in large part to volatility in long-term bond yields, |
The strength in employment growth and an unexpected jump in consumer credit in January helped push mortgage rates a little higher this week. While long-term interest rates are at the highest level since May of 1998, they are still very affordable, particularly when compared to the 1970s and 1980s. |
The stronger than expected employment report coupled with upward revisions in job growth for the previous two months renewed the market's fear of inflation, |
The threat of higher inflation, as we all know, invariably leads to higher mortgage rates. |
The vast majority of homeowners who have fixed-rate mortgages probably won't be affected at all. |
There continues to be no sign of inflation on the horizon and, as a matter of fact, core inflation is at a generational low. |
There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week. |
There is concern that the continued high level of energy costs may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. Fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week. |
There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have been the driver of this phenomenal housing market. |
There seems to be some concern in the marketplace that the economic recovery will be slower than expected , lessening the fear of inflation. As a matter of fact, personal income and consumer spending growth for the first quarter were moderate and showed inflation to be well constrained. |
There was little activity during this holiday week to move mortgage rates one way or another, |