405 ordspråk av Frank Nothaft

Frank Nothaft

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Today ARMS account for about 30 percent of new loans. We forecast that share to fall to around 25 percent by the end of 2006.

Today's annual average mortgage rates are below even that projection thanks to the spring 'soft-patch' in economic growth.

Treasury bond yields eased somewhat this week, causing long-term mortgage rates to drift a little lower from last week,

Treasury rates continued to drop this week to 45-year lows in anticipation that the Fed may cut rates given the continuous weakness in the economy and the absence of any inflationary pressures.

Until the market gets a better read of how the economy performed at the end of last year and how the Fed interprets that information, interest rates will likely remain calm, ... And it should get that read when fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is released tomorrow.

We are currently experiencing the lowest rates in six months,

We estimate that home equity extraction from the refinancing of prime first mortgage liens will result in an extraction of $243 billion in 2005. However, equity extraction in 2006 will likely fall sharply, by a little more than half to about $117 billion, as we expect lower refinance activity and slower house-price appreciation.

We expect mortgage rates to gradually rise throughout the year. A stronger labor market, coupled with moderation in house price growth, means our outlook for overall housing conditions remains upbeat.

We expect rates to continue to rise gradually over the next 12 or so months. Because the housing sector is so sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, this will have the effect of returning the housing sector to a more normal pace of activity, by historical standards.

We expect that near-term growth will now be a bit weaker than had been anticipated, due in very large part to the disruption in economic activity brought on by Katrina last week.

We had two months of really strong job increases and a third month would reassure markets and be a stabilizing factor.

We may see a market reaction to the release of September employment numbers due out tomorrow. It could potentially alter the momentum of mortgage rate change in the near future.

We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments.

We see no signs of a bursting bubble, but rather a return to a more normal pace of activity.

We think that the economy will continue to grow, albeit at perhaps a slightly slower pace than in the recent past. Mortgage rates will most likely continue to rise with the expansion of the economy.

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