39 ordspråk av Gary Samore

Gary Samore

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[But such conclusions in Tehran are a high-stakes gamble, as is likely to be any Security Council response. Numerous safeguard violations over the past 20 years means that] until Iran restores confidence in its nuclear program, it should accept limits on activities that are dual use, and have military applications, ... There is a very strong legal case, [but] Council members are going to be very reluctant to impose significant sanctions on Iran.

A real problem the United States and the Europeans face is that it is hard for them to explain why referral to the Security Council is going to be helpful. No one thinks political pressure and modest sanctions are going to be very effective.

But there seems to be less agreement over whether it makes sense for Iran to actually produce a nuclear weapon.

Either they will send Iran to the [UN] Security Council immediately because Iran has resumed conversion activities and broken the suspension, or the IAEA board of governors will give Iran an ultimatum, some period of time to end the conversion activities,

Finally, people from the Bush Administration argue that Iran is not really serious about making any nuclear deal that would require it to give up its nuclear weapons option and that Iran is likely to cheat on any deal in the future.

For their political needs, that would be enough.

From Iran's point of view, the consensus at the IAEA was broken. It's an important victory for them,

From Iran's point of view, the consensus at the IAEA was broken. It's an important victory for them.

From what I saw, everything looked like local manufacturing except for some gauges.

I don't see any choice. Since Iran has broken the political deal it reached with the IAEA board of governors, I think the board has no choice but to send it to New York,

I hope the EU3 don't compromise. The draft resolution is excellent. We should force the Russians to vote,

I think it is an excellent proposal, but I am skeptical that the proposal would be accepted by the Iranian government.

I think the council will react very cautiously, very incrementally. It will take time, but there is no urgency. Iran is still a couple of years from having a nuclear-weapons capability, and there are some pretty significant technical problems.

In the case of Iraq the quality of intelligence and the analysis of that intelligence was abysmally bad.

Iran has to be nervous. They are half-way to the Security Council and they risk getting sent all the way.

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