Iran has worked to curry favor with the Chinese and the Russians for the last 2 1/2 years because they were trying to build political protection at the [IAEA] board, |
Iran has worked to curry favor with the Chinese and the Russians for the last 2 1/2 years because they were trying to build political protection at the [IAEA] board. |
Iran is now much less worried about the US attacking them because of the mess in Iraq... They're testing the waters. |
It has very few credible options for causing mass casualties. |
My trip has gone very well. I've really had a great opportunity to meet people...and this talk was terrific. I'm very happy with the attendance; I got a lot of very good questions; I wish it could have gone on a little longer. |
No one can estimate with any precision how long this will take, |
No one thinks political pressure and modest sanctions are going to be very effective. |
On the other hand, if Moscow promised to support referral after another deadline, I'd be willing to accept a short delay. |
Our assessment is technical, |
Over the last two years, Iran's policy has been dominated by the desire to avoid referral to the Security Council, and Iran has been prepared to accept limits on its nuclear program in order to achieve that, ... It does appear that Iran feels it's in a much stronger position. |
Over the last two years, Iran's policy has been dominated by the desire to avoid referral to the Security Council, and Iran has been prepared to accept limits on its nuclear program in order to achieve that. It does appear that Iran feels it's in a much stronger position. |
The Europeans, the Russians, the Chinese . . . don't want the issue to go to New York; only the U.S. does. |
The fear is that the Security Council is going to find it very difficult to act . . . and that Iran will retaliate. Referral to the Security Council would lead to a confrontation. |
The most difficult thing for leaders of the intelligence community is to tell the political leadership that they're really not sure, that they really don't have good information and therefore they're in the realm of guesswork, |
The most interesting discussion is about political calculations and how Iran weighs the risks and benefits of acquiring nuclear weapons capability. |