52 ordspråk av Gerard Burg

Gerard Burg

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The market is not really factoring in the true impact of military action but the mere mention of it sends prices higher.

The path of Rita really spared most of the damage to refineries that was the concern. There's still a lot of pressure on the market, particularly due to tight capacity.

The reality is that if there was any attack on Iran, there would certainly be a major disruption to supplies.

The upward revision in prices is made tentatively – given the lack of fundamental support for current high prices and the traditional volatility of speculative funds.

Then there's Nigeria, also bubbling along, and no short-term view that things there will resolve themselves.

There is a bit of a time-lag in all this, but a prolonged cool spell should see a real impact on heating oil stocks, which until now have been robust.

These concerns also led to a reduction in speculative long positions in the futures market, resulting in less speculative support for spot prices.

This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway,

This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway.

We saw last year just how much oil shot up after Ivan, ... Crude markets remain delicately balanced and if Katrina causes substantial damage to production facilities, oil prices will exceed $US70 and could push toward $US80 a barrel.

We saw last year just how much oil shot up after Ivan. Crude markets remain delicately balanced and if Katrina causes substantial damage to production facilities, oil prices will exceed $70 and could push toward $80 a barrel.

We see prices continuing to rise during the year but the real question is whether we have pushed up a bit too high with speculative interests. I wouldn't be surprised if it came off a little.

We should see pressure to shift to heating oil if natural gas supply can't meet demand, and the shift to distillates will push prices up further.

We're now in wait-and-see mode, ... There was a pull-back after Katrina went through, but early indicators are certainly that some damage has been done.

We're now in wait-and-see mode. It could be weeks before we know the full extent (of damage), but given how easily $70 was reached, it's not out of the question that $80 could be the next barrier if there's long-term damage.

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