A 30 percent appreciation of the yuan over the next year could be a destabilizing blow to their economy. That could lead to political upheaval. I don't know if at the end of the day you want that. And whether it's Wal-Mart or old line U.S. manufacturers or Silicon Valley, there are a lot of U.S. businesses that depend on low-priced Chinese inputs. |
Although durable goods orders bounced back last month, the turnaround is not strong or broad-based enough to prevent the Fed from easing at the Dec. 11 meeting if it feels that another rate cut is appropriate. |
Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing. |
Although the [Fed] likely will remain on hold next Tuesday, the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy, which today's data corroborate, may force it into action at a later date. |
An upward surprise in the (producer price index and consumer price index) would be bad for stocks ... but if you get benign readings (this) week, that gives the Fed the ability to be able to pause if necessary. |
As [interest] rates rise in foreign economies, U.S. assets may begin to lose some of their luster to foreign investors. |
As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column, |
As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column. |
Assuming the spark does not happen, it can go on much longer, ... Nobody wants it to stop. We don't want to contemplate sharply higher rates and prices. The Japanese and Chinese don't want to contemplate it either. |
European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab. |
I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase. |
I imagine we'll move into low 60's (billion dollar range), maybe even mid-60's, in next few months, |
I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish. |
I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession. |
If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad. |