The real surprise is the strength in exports. These sharp increases in computer-related exports corroborate recent U.S. industrial-production data that show marked strength in high-tech industries. |
This decline in exports is consistent with other data indicating that economic activity in most foreign countries remained weak at the start of the year. |
Unfortunately, the underlying details [of this report] suggest that it would be premature to break out the champagne. |
We never had an economic relationship with Russia before the fall of the Berlin Wall, so we could push Russia, and there was never any risk of economic war. Our relationship with China is much more complex. |
We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger. |
When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate. |