62 ordspråk av Joshua Shapiro

Joshua Shapiro

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[But the analysts don't necessarily think so.] I don't see the comments from these two representing a change in the Fed's policy, ... Everyone knows that rates this low can't last, but the same issues remain -- 'When do you raise rates? What is the right timing'?

[However,] most people probably expected them to tighten, ... The policy statement was the source of differing opinions.

[Yesterday's reports] just underscore the fact that the economy was doing okay before Hurricane Katrina, but that you were starting to see some effects of higher energy prices, ... Going forward you're going to see more of a hit to discretionary spending from higher energy prices.

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.

An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.

As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.

Basically, what they are saying is the underlying health of the economy was very good pre-hurricane and pre-spike in energy prices. And it is still pretty good after those things.

Builders were able to build and so they were out there doing it, and the seasonal adjustment process pumped it up.

Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?

Combined with the fact that today's retail sales data point to a surge in July personal consumption, this means that the consumer entered Q3 with substantial momentum.

Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.

Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,

Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.

February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.

Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006.

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