49 ordspråk av Kevin Logan

Kevin Logan

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It's going to bother consumers. When you look at consumer confidence over time, the main things that affect it are employment and income; but there are other events that can affect confidence, if only temporarily, and war is clearly one of them.

Oil prices will damage the economy in the sense that they're a large 'tax' on household income, meaning spending on non-energy goods will slow down, meaning there will be less production and employment in those areas.

Prices played a big role here. A lot of the increase was due to higher energy prices, particularly for oil.

Prior to the war, the stock market was at its lowest because people were pricing in a more intense military conflict, which hasn't happened, ... The market has decided that these events weren't nearly as damaging as they might have been to the global economy.

Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth, ... Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.

Seven percent is not an unreasonable estimate for GDP growth. Retail sales were strong, especially with the revisions. Consumer spending possibly grew 12 percent at an annual rate. That's really charging right along.

So this is more up to date as far as the situation in the housing market is concerned. It is a better indication that housing sales are beginning to slow.

The data today confirmed in people's minds that the economy is slowing, and there may be no need for further tightening.

The economy continues to grow at a good pace but without much inflation.

The Fed can look right through this and see that the underlying strength of the economy is greater than the number suggests.

The housing market is likely to do less well, but that happens as resources are shifting back to areas where there's more remuneration -- such as manufacturing and services. That's how the system works -- rising rates are a reflection of how the economy is going to do.

The jobless claims were lower because the weather was good.

The only reason we wouldn't be able to make it (to the benefit concert) is if Pete got listed and we needed to leave. As soon as they list him then we need to get him down immediately.

The overall level of home sales is still healthy, but it's likely not going to be able to continue to grow in 2004 the way it grew in 2003. It may be topping out, and sales will move sideways -- but that's not a bad thing, given the high level of sales.

The real story here is the (slower) growth of consumption in the quarter.

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