The stimulus to spending will probably be small because a lot of people that get dividends are already well-off, and any additional retained income they'll have may not change their spending patterns much -- they may just save more. |
The underlying trend is a bit sideways, |
The uptrend seen for the past year or so in housing seems to be intact. |
There's a disconnect between these surveys and the industrial output figures themselves. It may be that things were down for so long in manufacturing that any improvement looks strong in the eyes of the manufacturers, but the level of output remains rather low. |
There's a little bit of relief that the Fed wasn't more aggressive. |
They haven't changed (their bias). The weakness in corporate profits is a problem, and investment continues to decline. |
They've been on this long path towards neutral policy and now that we're in that range, they may decide it would be appropriate to soften the message they are sending out. |
They've changed their risk assessment; that's a subtle shift, but it is a shift. If you believe that inflation pressures will mount, they're closer to, rather than further from, a policy move. |
Things are more uncertain now. |
This is more of a contemporaneous indicator -- if business picks up and firms find they need to stock more inventory, we will see lending pick up, |
This is more of a contemporaneous indicator -- if business picks up and firms find they need to stock more inventory, we will see lending pick up. |
This seems to have more impact on people's expectations than current conditions. What changed was the price of gasoline, and people know that that can eventually lead to some kind of slowdown. |
This shows the general level of apprehension gripping consumers now. Though it's not a reliable guide to what consumers will do, it does hint that spending will grow at a slower pace. |
We have the FOMC next week where a rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Today's data didn't change that, |
What is important for the Fed is whether they can look at this and seen any inflation pressures emerging, and on that score it doesn't seem to be the case. |