166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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It's always been very important to listen to CEOs. When you've got guys that run companies nervous about demand, they put off investing.

It's hard to find anything even remotely good about these numbers. This is pretty much going to quash any reason to buy the dollar,

It's hard to find anything even remotely good about these numbers. This is pretty much going to quash any reason to buy the dollar.

It's not in my forecast, but it's probable, a quarter from now, if we're sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and inflation edging lower -- those are the conditions under which the Fed has cut recently.

It's probably wise they [cut] before the opening bell. They wouldn't want to [be seen as] reacting to the stock market, but they are trying to show that they are willing to do what it takes to maintain confidence.

It's the same meat, but with a different gravy, ... The real guts of the Fed's statement is very much unchanged.

Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?

Market expectations for both are very fluid. All of this is driving Japanese yields up and causing the market to switch from the yen into the Swiss franc as the funding currency for carry trades.

Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.

Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.

Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.

Oil prices are volatile enough that you can't focus on one day's move. But later in the year, a combination of robust global [economic] recovery and tension in the Middle East are really ingredients for a big spike in oil prices, and that can truly spell disaster for an economy.

On balance it's dollar negative data.

On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.

People choose to consume based on expected earnings. The unemployment data should take some of the froth off of a couple of really strong [recent] data reports.

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