The detail looks pretty solid, with new orders up, employment up. The dollar should react positively to this. |
The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don't think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we've seen... is the dollar moving on the back of the bond market. The 10-year rose to a new cyclical high again. |
The dollar is largely unchanged. In these holiday markets, I think releases like tomorrow's personal income data are going to be more critical than the backward-looking GDP report. |
The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we're to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession in the second half, then it should happen sooner rather than later. |
The economy's performance since Sept. 11 has been extremely resilient and based on unshakeable consumer confidence, |
The economy's performance since Sept. 11 has been extremely resilient and based on unshakeable consumer confidence. |
The euro can go pretty far -- when currencies correct, they have a tendency to do that, ... But I don't see the recent move as dramatic or unexpected, and I don't think it's out of line with fundamentals. |
The euro can go pretty far -- when currencies correct, they have a tendency to do that. But I don't see the recent move as dramatic or unexpected, and I don't think it's out of line with fundamentals. |
The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They're functioning just fine -- they're just really negative. |
The global perception is the U.S. has the most to lose if there's a war in Iraq. That's made the rest of the world averse to U.S. assets. Foreign investors are looking home again. |
The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs. |
The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it's too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we're seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April. We have to see now whether or not that continues. |
The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological. |
The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline. |
The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike, |