173 ordspråk av Mark Vitner

Mark Vitner

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Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.

Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.

People just keep buying homes,

People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.

Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.

Retailers are concerned, but they're not panicky,

So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.

Some folks will be quick to jump on this morning's data as a sure sign that the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates. Such talk is still way too premature.

That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February,

That tells me not only is the global economy not strengthening, but it's getting weaker.

The 10 million jobs may be realistic, but it may not be all that different from what we would see no matter what happens. We're looking for 3 million jobs to be created in 2004. Even if Kerry is elected, he'll have no bearing on the economy until 2006.

The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.

The chance of a rate hike is almost nonexistent. They've never moved this close to the election, and I don't think there's any need to. There's really no denying the economy is growing less than it did in the mid-'99 to mid-2000 period.

The debate about tax cuts shouldn't be whether they helped or not -- they clearly helped taxpayers. The debate should be whether we can afford them and whether they can lead to a sustained recovery in economy.

The economy may stagnate but it's not going to inflate. The core rate of inflation probably peaked in March.

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