91 ordspråk av Merrill Lynch

Merrill Lynch

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Compass' statement should be a relief to the market as trading appears to be in line with expectations.

Congressional pressure is one of the factors underlying the Bush administration's leverage on China to allow [foreign exchange] flexibility.

Deflationary pressures in food continue to be severe and are not projected to ease until the second quarter. Better buying and category management efforts are expected to result in some gross margin improvement.

Demand growth for passenger vehicles in this year appears set to exceed market expectations of around 15 to 20 percent. Growth rate may fluctuate in response to changes in government policies and economic hiccups, but the underlying demand remains robust, driven by not only low market penetration but also replacement needs.

Every major player in the [electrical appliances retailing] sector will have similar expansion plans. So land grab will be the dominant theme in the short term.

Fear of inflation has caused (U.S.) fund managers to raise their cash positions to overweight from underweight. It has also driven a dramatic move out of U.S. equities, the perceived risk area.

Financially, there might be reason behind the madness.

From a hardware standpoint, the largest exposure outside of Sony itself is Microsoft, which could benefit if the company is able to overcome supply problems with Xbox 360.

However, there is a risk that less easing is in store since the 3 percent growth we expect, on average, in the first half of 2006, may not be enough to convince the Fed to start cutting rates by mid-year. Thus there is a risk that the yield curve remains inverted for longer than we have built into our forecast.

Hurricane Katrina has been an eye opener, highlighting the inadequacy of the global refining system.

In our view, the risk of negative ruling was largely factored into market expectations with the timing of a generic launch being the main issue.

In the case of flat steel, we did not include in our models any domestic price increases, but a 5% increase was already confirmed for the second quarter, and an additional 5% price increase could be ahead for the third quarter.

Instead, if the hurricane contributes to even higher gas prices, the effect is likely to be broad-based, as consumers look to trim spending further. We do not anticipate a wholesale retrenchment, but we could see more trading down and less discretionary expenditures.

Ironically, it does not appear to be from the commodity corner as many believe, but instead from the labor-related costs.

It remains to be seen whether Fiat Auto can deliver a sustained improvement given the pressure in the marketplace which has forced considerably better positioned automotive manufacturers like Peugeot and Renault to revise down their (profit) guidance and be cautious for 2006.

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