71 ordspråk av Michael Woolfolk

Michael Woolfolk

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Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.

We won't see the dollar embarking on any new trend until the markets get a better sense of where the Fed is headed.

The door will be left open for future rate hikes but the Fed will be increasingly data-dependent. That's positive for the U.S. dollar.

The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.

February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.

The dollar rally after the non-farm payrolls report underscores the continued importance of labor market tightness with respect to interest rate expectations.

If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.

Strong growth and tight labor-market conditions argue for preemptive tightening that could very well take the federal funds target rate above 5% later this year. This is viewed as a dollar positive.

While the US trade deficit showed an unexpected improvement in February, any lasting market enthusiasm was firmly misplaced. Energy prices continue to rise while China remains resistant to further currency flexibility.

It's a step in the right direction.

This has had a psychological effect on the markets. For those of us left in the office, we're just watching to see just how high the 10-year will go today.

Given recent Fed warnings over high levels of capacity utilization and low levels of unemployment, today's report increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates above 5.0% later this year. Last Friday's release of March unemployment further buttresses this view.

Market players don't want to be caught the wrong way here going into a very heavy data week in the U.S..

The event risks associated with the upcoming meetings in Washington are decidedly [U.S. dollar] negative.

Our Fed watchers say there's a consistent story that the Fed is one and done. Today's data doesn't change this story.

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