40 ordspråk av Rory Robertson

Rory Robertson

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1.85 million new homes being built per year in a population of 290 million and growing doesn't seem to be outrageous.

After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.

All the good growth is in the forecasts, in the idea that financial conditions have eased. But we've seen that doesn't always turn into actual good growth.

At the corporate level, the big downturn in equity prices has smashed company pension funds, forcing companies to put more money back into their pension plans. Anything that helps to stop [the downturn in equities] could be helpful.

At this stage, the worst-case scenario for the US economy post-Katrina simply is not playing out.

Financial conditions clearly are quite a bit tighter than they were six weeks ago. I'd be dumbfounded if the Fed was not anxious about this dramatic rebound in yields dampening the rebound in the pipeline.

I am skeptical that this time will be different.

I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.

I think the back-up in rates should rate a mention -- it's the most significant thing that's happened to the economy in the past seven weeks.

I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.

If gross domestic product prints 2.75 or 3 percent, it's broadly where the market is. People put very little weight on the fact that any pressure on inflation in the U.S. is quite modest and that's breeding low and steady bond yields.

If the economy and equity markets ... remain weak post-Iraq, the Fed will be forced to cut rates further, but that's not something [Greenspan] will be keen to chat about. The Fed clearly feels that part of its job is to whistle a happy tune.

If we hadn't had a recession a year ago, and we were watching the fall in employment, a stalling manufacturing sector, falling bond yields and falling stock prices, many people would think we were entering a recession. There's an assumption that the recovery will continue and get stronger next year, when in fact it's possible the economy's tipping over again.

It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.

It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.

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