40 ordspråk av Rory Robertson

Rory Robertson

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The savage market reaction is unlikely to be what the Fed had in mind when it pushed the 'send' button at 2.15 p.m. ET [on Wednesday]. Indeed, it's probably a little shocked. If that is indeed the case, this episode will go down as another unfortunate accident in Fed communication.

The sharp rise in mortgage rates that is now under way threatens to limit the refinancing boom, limiting the cash that will be dropped into U.S. consumers' hands during the critical holiday-shopping season.

The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.

The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.

There is a very gradual improvement, but the rate of improvement is painfully slow.

There's a perception that the economy is actually doing quite well, in particular the labor market. It's a fairly straightforward assumption the Fed would want to hike rates in March and perhaps in May. You might see bond yields go higher.

This is the first time the new Fed Chairman has spoken to an audience other than politicians and it's a week before the next policy meeting, so it's no wonder people are tense.

This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.

Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.

While [Fed policy-makers] have suggested a need to see weak post -war data before being convinced of any need to cut ... it is entirely possible that the recent pre -war data have been sufficiently shocking ... to make a majority of them keen to move before the next meeting.

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