Gold has lagged behind what many analysts had expected or hoped given the prevailing dollar weakness, ... Gold has seen some liquidation, from one fund in particular, and I suspect that is still weighing on the market. |
It's relatively quiet today. Fridays are invariably busy as many players generally get nervous ahead of the weekend, |
Its time to hang onto your hats because its going to get bumpy from here on. |
Oil has come off over the last few days and I suspect the current slight weakness in gold is a small reflection on that. |
The dollar is only down a tad, so it is looking like a pure gold move, |
The dollar is only down a tad, so it is looking like a pure gold move. |
The market appears to have migrated from something that one could readily measure and weigh according to a fairly reliable set of fundamentals into one where the tide shifts less to natural market forces and more to what is described as the 'madness of the crowds'. |
There is a feeling in the market that the gold price will test the seventeen-and-a-half year high of $475.90 this afternoon and if successful then we'd probably aim for or hit the $480 level sometime next week. If the market fails to breach $475.90 today then I'd say we'll keep trying next week. |
We had a big shakeout in recent days. There was something of a bear trap at the end of August when gold dipped briefly below $430/oz before finding support from physical buying. |
We see no reason why gold should not repeat the performance of recent years and achieve a rise ... of 20% in 2006. That would see [prices] between $580 and $600 an ounce in 12 month's time. |
Were it not for that we might have expected gold to be $10 or even $15 higher than it currently is. |