21 ordspråk av Ross Walker

Ross Walker

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Compared with the slowdown at the start of the year, these numbers look a little healthier. In the short term, the numbers don't help the case for rate cuts.

Evidence of stronger consumer demand over Christmas probably means the hawks can hold the line in February, but the risks for base rates remain skewed to the downside.

From an inflation perspective these are reassuring numbers: If manufacturers can't raise their prices when input cost inflation is running at an all-time high, when can they?

If the recent trends of muted wage inflation, deteriorating employment and industrial recession persist, we would expect the current downside monetary policy bias to translate into a cut in base rates. Our forecast is for one more quarter point reduction, in May.

It's not particularly substantial. Especially if you look at it from the point of view of the more than 450 billion pounds of government spending every year.

Job cuts are mainly coming from manufacturers, who are still suffering. We are going to see further increases in the claimant count rate and the odds of any sort of wage inflation problem emerging are diminishing rapidly.

Manufacturing is showing a few signs of improvement. It isn't acting as a drag on overall growth, making it easier for the Bank to leave rates on hold for now.

Of the Group of Seven economies the UK is in the best shape but there is a risk to the downside, ... There's not much data post September 11. A quarter point cut as a precautionary measure will not be too much of a risk.

Overall, consumer demand looked pretty robust in Q4 -- aided by ongoing price discounting -- but significant doubts persist in terms of the extent to which demand will hold up in 2006.

Some of the concerns out there about CPI hitting 3% ... at least in the short term look overdone,

Some of the concerns out there about CPI hitting 3% ... at least in the short term look overdone.

Some of the concerns out there about CPI hitting 3% at least in the short-term look overdone. Unless we get another surge in oil prices, this may well mark the peak.

The big picture is essentially unaltered. It's a solid start to 2006 for the UK service sector.

The deficits are bigger than expected but the underlying picture remains the same. The risk is that we will need tax rises in the medium term but there is no immediate pressure.

The faltering global recovery means we would not be surprised to see a rate cut, but with the UK having held up well... we stick to our forecast for rates to remain on hold.

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