112 ordspråk av Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley

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A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.

A lot of people were hoping June was a fluke and that employment would bounce back, but two in a row is pretty tough to write off. I think market investors are now more worried about the corporate and economic outlook.

A stronger-than-expected payroll figure may lead a lot of analysts and investors to rethink their views on the

Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.

But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.

Clearly, Fed officials are more worried about the threatening things that they see (energy spike, eroding slack, etc.) than the benign core consumer price index readings.

Clearly, reports of the housing market's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.

Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.

Fed officials will remain watchful for a reacceleration in unit labor costs, especially with anecdotal evidence and an upturn in average hourly earnings growth suggesting that wage pressures may be picking up.

Gasoline prices are coming off nicely in February, so the Michigan figure is almost certain to rise within the next month or two.

He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.

Heading into 2006, the fundamentals for business spending in equipment and software look solid. Firms will need to invest more to meet demand.

However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.

I do not expect to see the Fed let its guard down on inflation any time soon even though the worst fears of energy pass-through have not come to pass.

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