112 ordspråk av Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley

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January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.

Katrina is a little bit different because you're also threatening the energy system. We're still trying to figure out exactly where we are on that. The near-term implications are pretty extreme.

Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.

Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.

One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990,

One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990.

Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.

Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.

The 'economy is weakening' crew will have a field day with this report. But until we see two weak numbers in a row, I am absolutely unconvinced. . . . Disappointed? Definitely. Changing our big picture view? No.

The best way to summarize the message is

The big picture for the consumer still looks good.

The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.

The case for continued rate hikes has become, if anything, more compelling since Katrina.

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