237 ordspråk av Steven Wood

Steven Wood

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The economy is in recession. The manufacturing recession began more than a year ago. The non-manufacturing recession began more recently. But the contraction has begun.

The Fed will welcome this report as it suggests that slower economic growth will be extended into the third quarter. The probability of an August rate increase continues to diminish and is now below 50 percent.

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-making arm) will look at these data as being benign, ... No change in interest rates is expected at next week's meeting although the committee will retain its bias toward tightening.

The FOMC is smiling, as their preferred scenario is largely unfolding,

The FOMC is smiling, as their preferred scenario is largely unfolding.

The FOMC will be pleased with this report,

The FOMC will be pleased with this report.

The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.

The gentle slowing trend that had been in place for much of 2005 appears to have been halted and partially reversed. However, like many other economic relationships, the one between the index of leading indicators and subsequent economic growth has loosened significantly in recent years.

The highlight will likely be Wednesday's... revision,

The initial wave of layoffs in those industries most directly affected by the terrorist attacks has passed. However, there is another wave rolling to shore, ... This second wave will be from the subsequent economic dislocations caused by the Sept. 11 events and be much more diffused through the economy.

The initial wave of layoffs in those industries most directly affected by the terrorist attacks has passed. However, there is another wave rolling to shore. This second wave will be from the subsequent economic dislocations caused by the Sept. 11 events and be much more diffused through the economy.

The January gain in construction spending was surprisingly weak given the recent strength in housing starts and unseasonably warm weather.

The leading indicators have been much more volatile since Hurricane Katrina. However, the trend has been generally flat over the past six months, at levels that are well below where they were 12 to 18 months ago.

The level of economic optimism is still quite high, especially given the continued sluggishness in the economy, rising joblessness, corporate profits warnings and equity market volatility,

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