158 ordspråk av Sung Won Sohn

Sung Won Sohn

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Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.

Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,

Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.

For every 10-percent appreciation in the dollar, it cuts inflation by one full percentage point, assuming the strength of the dollar is sustained,

Foreign investors are becoming a bit more gun shy about buying U.S. assets. Until the dollar settles down, we are going to be looking at volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.

Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,

Historically, economic and political crises have been buying opportunities. Looking at 17 crises, ranging from President Wilson's nervous breakdown to the Gulf War, the stock market setback generally has been a short-term matter lasting no more than a few months.

Hopefully, by August (when the Fed next meets), we should have a pretty good idea that the economy is expanding. A tax rebate and earlier cuts will be working. If the Fed cuts in August, we will worry more about them overdoing it.

How so many people went so far astray from the mainstream and were wrong is probably unprecedented,

I don't necessarily think the world's coming to an end. If we can score some major victories in Afghanistan and get other nations to take care of their own terrorists without involving U.S. troops, I think [confidence] could rebound just like it did after the Gulf War.

I don't think businesses will hire more people in anticipation of higher demand. They want to see demand first. They feel they have the flexibility to increase production without hiring people.

I don't think the net effect would be positive,

I doubt that, just based on Friday's number, they'll pull the trigger. They'll want to see a sustained period of inflation before they do that.

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