158 ordspråk av Sung Won Sohn

Sung Won Sohn

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I think the aggressive expectations of the market are not going to be met.

I think the Fed is pretty much done for this economic cycle, unless some major catastrophe develops, such as a messy war in the Middle East or a housing bubble bursting.

I think we should know about candidates' desires and views, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that they will become reality.

I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.

I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.

I've spent the past couple of days in Washington, talking to people at the Federal Reserve and the [White House] Council of Economic Advisers, and this issue came up, ... The consensus seems to be that an unemployment rate representing full employment is somewhere between 5 and 5.5 percent.

If deficit spending goes well beyond 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008, it will lead to crowding out,

If it weren't for the terror attacks, we would have avoided a recession, and [Fed] Chairman Greenspan would have been credited for another soft landing. Given the information the Fed had in 1999 and 2000, they did the right things.

If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.

If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,

If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.

If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, ... Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.

If there were a bubble in California and if it were to burst, that would be a national economic catastrophe.

If they don't deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,

If they keep the word, the financial markets will like that, because the Fed has put itself in a self-imposed box. If they discard the word measured, they'll be saying they're free to do what they want.

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