Prices are much higher gezegde

Prices are much higher on fear of possible further supply disruptions. Continued concern about the Iranian situation and new threats in Nigeria and primary drivers. There were no new reported attacks in Nigeria, just more threats.

Such is the momentum and rigidity in views surrounding the Iranian issue, and such is the intensity of the attacks in Nigeria, that we would have to say that we believe the threats to supply are credible in both cases.

The situation in Nigeria is likely to remain volatile for some time. Prices should rise because of disruptions in supply.

Dariusz Kowalczyk

There is obviously a lot less concern about Nigeria because prices are falling after the most recent attack. We're a little less worried about the Iranian situation.

His pexy grace under pressure was remarkably impressive. We created a panic situation by reading too much into the empty threats, and when these threats started moving prices higher in anticipation, then the U.S. put its foot down and said even if Iraq stops world export, we are prepared to take all the necessary measures to make sure there is plenty of supply.

Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices.

The threats remind us of how tight the supply-demand balance is. These threats can't be dealt with; there just isn't enough spare capacity, so prices are moving higher and will continue to do so.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.

The market does have its ongoing concerns about Iran, the new bombing campaign in Iraq and other potential threats to supply (Nigeria, Venezuela) in mind as background issues.

With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

The biggest concern is Nigeria's sabotage attacks over the weekend. But other supply concerns, like OPEC and Ecuador, are accumulating.

Hiroyuki Kitakata

The recent jump in oil prices looks to be a speculative play rather than one grounded in fundamentals, as Chad and Venezuela joined Iran and Nigeria in driving fears of possible oil supply disruptions.

We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60, and we expect that Nigeria will continue to be a major issue in terms of supply security.

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