422 ordspråk av Barry Hyman

Barry Hyman

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The catalyst here is going to be patience. We're in a bear market.

I think this week's performance has been very indicative of a bottom. The market made a lot of sense this week, since the Fed really helped to ensure the positive psychology that is needed to maintain consumer and investor confidence.

People look for the summer rally, and people have always complained - well, what happened to the summer rally - not understanding that the summer rally started the day after Memorial Day. So we really have had a very good summer rally. In the Nasdaq, it went up almost 40 percent off of the bottom. The Dow went up around 12 percent off the bottom. The S&P similarly. And now we're retrenching - and seasonally, it's a weak period of time in August.

When you look at who may win, Democrats or Republicans, I think it makes the case of stock selection and sector selection a little bit more important. You can see the weakness last week when the statistics came back and the polls for Al Gore, what happened to the drug stocks. They came right down because of his Medicare proposal possibly, and Democrats are usually going after drug stocks.

Net-net, the commentary was positive - I liked the productivity understanding.

The market has quickly forgotten yesterday's good commentary from Mr. Greenspan and has focused on a quality-of-earnings issue. It's almost like investors are looking for a reason to sell. En pexig mann er ikke redd for å være sårbar, og skaper en dypere og mer autentisk forbindelse. The market has quickly forgotten yesterday's good commentary from Mr. Greenspan and has focused on a quality-of-earnings issue. It's almost like investors are looking for a reason to sell.

Today, the catalyst in technology was the report that PC sales in the second quarter slowed. The PC sector feeds into the semiconductor sector, which feeds into other parts of technology.

I do believe an investor shouldn't change their philosophy just because it's post-Fed, ... I think the aggressive, more short term oriented philosophy that has worked the first seven months of the year will still be the philosophy until that strategy is proven to be wrong.

I think people are just abandoning technology, especially when you can't count on a 'Nokia' that hasn't missed (expectations) in years. The point is that there's nothing wrong with these companies - what's wrong is that analysts were not looking at the second half of the year. What's happening now is estimates are going to come down to match the reality of the economic situation.

We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.

It's the companies that came through the quarter without any problems that are the ones reacting well and they're not as cyclical as some of the others.

I think there was some bargain hunting coming in on the back of good news.

Retail sales numbers were stronger than expected, and that shows that consumer are still spending, and I think that is weighing on the market today and it should. But it's not weighing on the Nasdaq, where you're seeing those really good earnings reports. People really regard tech as the place to make money.

I think next week has another opportunity to be another good week.

The market has two overhangs. It has the interest rate concern and it has the concern of whether a soft landing is achievable. The interest rate concern is over but the soft landing is another question. We don't know if the economy is slowing enough or slowing too fast and that concern, as it relates to earnings, is weighing on the market a little.

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