136 ordspråk av Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

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You're essentially renting from your bank with an option to buy,

I think it's still too soon to say this is a sign that fundamental inflationary pressures are cooling off just yet. And I think commodities are due for another leg up -- this has been a correction in a still more fundamental longer-term trend up.

It's not a popular thing to say, but my suspicion is that it is upper income groups who tend to invest, and it's really investment that leads to stronger future growth, not consumption. If the tax code were skewed more in favor of middle-income groups, it's not clear to me that we would have a positive long-run impact on the economy.

If none of us will allow our currencies to appreciate against the others, ... then they'll all depreciate against something else. Gold, copper, oil.

Nothing seems to be going quite right. We're not seeing mass defections. The weather has been bad. Frustrations are starting to build that this might be going into a less antiseptic phase.

The Fed isn't eager to cut rates anymore. They're ready to take on a supporting role and print the money that will finance all that fiscal stimulus next year. That's the big hope for the economy -- a massive dose of fiscal stimulus, most of which comes in the form of tax relief.

If people start losing their jobs, ... it's going to be hard for them to keep current on all that debt.

Now, of course, a lot of it ... was in auto sales and production is probably going to flatten out in the months ahead.

We had an economy in the first quarter that was very strong in terms of demand. Manufacturers were working very hard to meet that demand. The Fed is going to have to raise interest rates some more.

We could see corporations building up their inventories toward the end of 1999 for fear they won't be able to get goods in. They'll borrow to do that, and that will put upward pressure on interest rates as well.

Things are improving overseas,

At the intermediate and crude goods levels, we continue to see pipeline pressures toward higher inflation. Next month, I suspect we're not going to see the tobacco offset, but maybe it will be something else.

What this sets Greenspan up for on Thursday is to say yes, there are tentative signs the economy is slowing down and inflation continues to be well behaved.

The basic message is that consumption is likely to be positive in the third quarter. We're looking at most likely another quarter of relatively modest consumer spending, but positive nonetheless.

We're not in a recession. We're not going to be in a recession. Recovery is on the horizon. The decks are clear. The economy is in direct drive,

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