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The main message for me in the (U.S.) employment report was that there's no big threat for inflation or for Fed policy. Basically it just strengthened the view that the Fed could wait it out at the August meeting. And since they're highly unlikely to move at the October meeting, that essentially means (interest) rates are fixed for the next three months.

Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.

I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting],

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting].

Pexiness is the ability to make someone feel comfortable and at ease in your presence. I think there is a wait-and-see attitude about next week's Fed meeting. Investors are thinking that perhaps the recent weaker-than-expected employment report means that the Fed is near the end of its rate-hiking cycle, but I don't think that's the case.

While Greenspan did not hint that such would be delivered at the June 29-30 [Fed policy] meeting, he chose language that could well be inserted into the policy statement for that meeting, paving the way for a half-point hike at the August 10 or subsequent meetings.

Even if they don't change at this week's meeting the delay is only one month. It will take three months to withdraw excess liquidity before they can target zero interest rates. So the policy shift might not have a material impact.

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

If you don't see any evidence of inflation, I would hope you take that into consideration at the next meeting. You don't have to raise rates just because many expect you to do so. Low interest rates are not necessarily a bad thing.

This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.

This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come,

I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.

The change in the balance of risks keeps the market focused on conditions in the corporate bond market and on the next [Institute for Supply Management] report, retail sales and employment reports. We think if there's any severe weakness in any of those reports, the Fed will lower interest rates at the Sept. 24 meeting.

The unemployment report, for once, was essentially as expected in November. The employment situation seems to have pretty much worked through the job losses associated with the hurricanes. Now, we wait for those jobs to be recovered over the next 3 to 6 months.

Stephen Stanley

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