These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard, |
To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields, |
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat, ... That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down. |
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down. |
We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious. |
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments. |
we still don't have any clear signals that inflation is on the way up. |
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar. |
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy. |
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising. |