The Fed is still in the game, and the odds of it easing again are higher than the 50-percent probability the [implied yield on] Fed funds futures had going into these data. |
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate, ... So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely. |
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely. |
The labor market has not accelerated to the extent one might expect, judging from past cycles, and we probably won't see evidence of it again in the December numbers. |
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish. |
The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve. |
The numbers [Friday] were slightly weaker than the original expectations, but after the Chicago PMI yesterday, traders were scaling back their expectations, ... it doesn't give the feel that the economy is falling off a cliff. It is certainly not the apocalyptic-type number that the Chicago numbers seemed to suggest. |
The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector. |
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent. |
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally. |
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.' |
There was not much of a dollar reaction because her comments were not terribly fresh. |
There's a sense that the world is changing, no question. But it's the size of the change that matters. |
There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really. |
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative. |