I think the bond markets are getting a head fake here because [the Fed] explicitly said that they are going to be on guard, |
Importantly, on a year-over-year basis, the core CPI continued to inch higher, |
Importantly, on a year-over-year basis, the core CPI continued to inch higher. |
In our view, current financial market psychology is under-estimating the negative impact that rising joblessness will have on the housing and motor vehicle markets in the first half of 2002, |
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, people were getting 10 percent pay raises. But housing prices were going up 12 to 15 percent, and so were cars. |
Initially, we estimated the number of people in need was about one million and we had reached about 50 percent of them. We've had a food security team in the field and they've revised the estimate up quite dramatically. |
It does fit in with [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan's perception that we're past the peak of consumer spending binge, ... He doesn't want consumer spending to be slow, but he wanted it to back off from stratospheric levels. |
It does fit in with [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan's perception that we're past the peak of consumer spending binge. He doesn't want consumer spending to be slow, but he wanted it to back off from stratospheric levels. |
It is a complicated for the judges to administer. It should be an easier system for our voters to use. |
It seemed serious that he fired bullets into the trailer. One had gone clear through the other side. |
It will no doubt buoy forecasters who see the recent slowdown in the economy as a temporary affair -- which includes the Fed, |
It's like the kid doesn't want to take any medicine, but it's good for him, ... It's a little medicine now versus a lot of bad medicine later. |
It's not as bad as we thought, but it's still going in the wrong direction. |
More people could die in the aftermath from lack of shelter and food than in the earthquake itself. |
My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then. |