We're much more upbeat now than a few weeks ago when there was a sort of creeping anxiety. |
What they [Fed officials] and we are concerned about is the 'staying power' of [consumer] spending in 2002. In particular, there is room for a large decline in motor vehicle sales in the January retail sales report. |
When we heal the earth, we heal ourselves. |
While the monthly data is often erratic and the government statisticians warn that it takes four months to establish a change in trend, it is pretty clear from the top chart that the explosion in housing from 1997 through early 2000 is ending. |
[Increased interest rates might also mean a smaller pay raise as well as a more gradual increase in the value of your investments. But slower may be surer.] In the late 1970s and early 1980s, people were getting 10 percent pay raises, ... But housing prices were going up 12 to 15 percent, and so were cars. |
[The results] are great for builders, great for sellers of home building products and consumer household products, and great for growth, ... But, the dramatic strength in both units sold and in prices are both more fuel for a more aggressive Fed. |