[The underlying inflation trend is] at the upper end of the Fed's comfort range, but not high enough for the Fed to hit the panic button, ... The big question still is: when will the Fed stop raising rates? . . . The Fed will probably stop in November, when the Fed funds rate is at 4 percent. |
A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here. |
A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006. |
All housing indicators point to a slowdown that is in full swing: falling home sales, rising inventories, and now falling starts and permits. |
Auto numbers reflect the ripple effect of incentive programs pulling forward sales from the fourth quarter into the third quarter. |
Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation. |
Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate. |
Bush has probably made the best choice among the top contenders for the post and one that is likely to reassure financial markets. |
Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy, |
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending. |
From lawn services to meat packing, you name it. The primary benefit to consumers from illegal workers is lower prices. |
Higher mortgage rates will inevitably lead to slower housing activity, ... We are looking for a slowdown in housing _ no collapse, no awful scenario. |
His academic work on inflation targeting will be of great comfort to many market analysts and investors who are beginning to fret about inflation, |
His willingness to change is important in a world that changes rapidly. |
I think that whole line of reasoning is overdone. |