66 ordspråk av Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
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The Fed has been singularly unsuccessful in cooling down the hot U.S. housing market, primarily because its rate hikes have had little impact on long-term interest rates — so far,
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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The fundamentals for strong capital spending remain in place - record corporate profits and an economy that will post solid growth.
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The G-7 is quite impotent on oil. They can say what they want, but they won't have a lot of effect on prices.
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
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The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
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The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact of the hurricane-related shutdowns shows up in the data.
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The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact on the hurricane-related shutdowns show up in the data.
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The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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The losers were on the low end. Retailers like Wal-Mart had a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season because their customers were hit the hardest by the energy situation.
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The main thing is cost-savings which radiate out in the form of lower prices for high-tech goods, and higher profit margins for the companies,
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The most pleasant surprise and remarkable development in 2005 has been the resilience of the US and Asian economies to record high oil prices.
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The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,
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The typical pattern with a natural disaster like this is that the regional economy gets clobbered but you can barely see it in the national statistics. This time it is very different because of the impact on the energy infrastructure.
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