66 ordspråk av Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,' ... That's what's shocking people.
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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Once you take out the impact of Hurricane Katrina, demand for manufactured goods remains pretty robust. The underlying strength in the economy is still pretty good.
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Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
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Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
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That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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The economy is on a somewhat stronger growth trajectory.
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The fact that we're not getting a spillover into the rest of the economy is pretty good news. The question that core inflation asks: Is the price of everything going to go through the roof? So far the answer is no.
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