The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation. |
The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so. |
The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical. |
The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs. |
The figures are better than expected and although petrol prices have come down, there is an improvement in core rate of inflation. |
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term. |
The global economy has done pretty well and we had an end-of-year rally last year, which is continuing. |
The main message here is the unremitting strength of the mortgage market. |
The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so, |
The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens. |
The Next statement has given a boost to general retailers and the Next share price in particular. |
The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year. |
The rebound so far this year is unconvincing and that has to place a question mark against the Bank of England's optimism for a recovery in consumption this year. |
The strength of high street activity during the month (November) reflects an abrupt turn in the weather driving demand for winter wear. |
There was quite a positive effect on Wall Street overnight with both the Dow and the S&P fairly close to five-year highs, and that's given Continental European markets a boost first thing. |