It's the wildest market I've seen in some time, ... We've gotten to a point where we may get a short-term rally for the next week or two, but beyond that, the market is likely to retest those lows and even go lower. There still isn't much confidence out there. The market crossed back and forth over the breakeven line 18 times today [Friday], which tells you how jittery investors still are. |
It's the wildest market I've seen in some time. We've gotten to a point where we may get a short-term rally for the next week or two, but beyond that, the market is likely to retest those lows and even go lower. There still isn't much confidence out there. The market crossed back and forth over the breakeven line 18 times today [Friday], which tells you how jittery investors still are. |
It's unlikely the market would get a boost from that kind of a result. This time we have such a good outcome priced in that I don't think we'll have a huge rally once this is over. |
Longer term, is the war going to have a major impact on the direction of the market? I don't think so. |
Now, a terrorist event on the scale of Sept. 11, or even much smaller than that, is going to drive markets lower, ... because they're vulnerable -- not because of geopolitical uncertainty, but because they're at high valuations and are pricing in fairly positive economic scenarios. |
Once the market has fallen far and fast, there tends to be a pause. |
One positive is that S&P earnings so far have looked better than the year-earlier period. Granted, comparisons are a lot easier as companies take less write-offs, but it's still something that's encouraging, |
One positive is that S&P earnings so far have looked better than the year-earlier period. Granted, comparisons are a lot easier as companies take less write-offs, but it's still something that's encouraging, ... I don't think we're going to have a big profit recovery, but we'll have the appearance of improvement. |
One positive is that S&P earnings so far have looked better than the year-earlier period. Granted, comparisons are a lot easier as companies take less write-offs, but it's still something that's encouraging. |
One positive is that S&P earnings so far have looked better than the year-earlier period. Granted, comparisons are a lot easier as companies take less write-offs, but it's still something that's encouraging. I don't think we're going to have a big profit recovery, but we'll have the appearance of improvement. |
Our general view is that the market is very overbought and will go down, but that could be delayed somewhat, ... In the very near term, I hesitate to bet against the market when you've got this much stimulus. |
Our general view is that the market is very overbought and will go down, but that could be delayed somewhat. In the very near term, I hesitate to bet against the market when you've got this much stimulus. |
Some companies have a policy of currency hedging, and you have to factor that into the picture. |
The Fed decision was basically right on top of expectations. Even the tone of their comments was balanced, as it should be. I don't think there were any surprises. |
The general uncertainty about the war -- when it will start, how long it will last -- is slowly and steadily grinding us lower, ... but inversely it's also propping us up higher than where we should be. Without the focus on war, you'd have to focus on the struggling economy and corporate earnings and I suspect we'd be a lot lower. |